When a bubble blows too big, it will burst.
So, it's no wonder overheated housing markets around the globe have collapsed -- in Australia, the U.K., parts of Europe and now in booming markets in the States, like Florida and California.
Even red-hot China is worried about its housing bubble, and has taken steps to try to cool it down, like hiking interest rates, increasing down payments, and tightening financing rules for home builders.
But, here in Canada -- where real estate is enjoying a record long bull market -- experts still maintain there is no bubble to burst. And forecasts keep predicting a rosy housing future, even though affordability is being eroded by higher prices.
The latest comes from the experts at Scotia Economics, who yesterday stated Canada's multi-year boom in multi-unit construction shows no sign of letting up.
What is slowing, though, is construction of single-detached homes, which are becoming too expensive for first-time buyers.
Overall, that means what's ahead is hardly a housing collapse. "Rising home and land costs are making more affordable housing options, such as condominiums and townhomes increasingly attractive, particularly for first-time buyers," said senior economists at Scotiabank. They point to statistics showing ground was broken on more than 105,000 multi-unit dwellings last year, up slightly from 2004 and more than double the level of a decade earlier. In fact, multi-unit projects accounted for 47% of all housing starts in 2005, compared with just 37% at the start of the current housing cycle in 1998.
Who's buying? According to Warren, condos are being snapped up by Canadians in the 20-to-29 age bracket, and those 55 and older.
Bottom line is: Both empty nesters and young professionals like the idea of living closer to downtown cores, which cuts down on commuting time.
Investors are also turning to condos as ways to diversify their portfolios, said Warren.
"Looking ahead, the aging of Canada's population, combined with the continued movement of the baby boom echo generation into the rental and homeownership market, is expected to further raise the popularity of multi-family housing," she said.
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